What is happening with the Denver Broncos? Broncos Country is on fire and Denver Head Coach Sean Payton, considered by many to be the savior to return the Broncos franchise back to being a Super Bowl contender, seems more content to burn down the franchise and rebuild rather than return the team back to the playoffs this season. While a rebuild may be necessary, the moves Payton is making this off-season are very high-risk due to the team’s current salary cap and draft capital situation, but also will test the patience of both the coach and fan base to an extent neither have been used to. Sean Payton may be correct with his off-season strategy, which could set a new standard in the league of how to escape crippling contracts, but if he is wrong then he just put Denver in a position it will take years to recover from, which is a fireable offense and why right now Sean Payton should be on the coach’s hot seat entering into 2024.

So far this off-season the Broncos have been pretty quiet with the reasoning of moving on from Russell Wilson, Justin Simmons and Jerry Juedy, but the reason is not hard to figure out. Denver has been a team who has underachieved for eight seasons and the Broncos seem to be stuck in neutral getting back to the playoffs and unable to break through, which is why Sean Payton brought to the Mile High City following a trade with New Orleans which was designed to work with Quarterback Russell Wilson, and fix the Broncos.

As Payton restructures the Broncos Offense rather than work with Wilson another season he chose to close the chapter of one of the most lopsided trades in NFL history after the Broncos acquired Russell Wilson from Seattle. While many Broncos fans are embracing a rebuild and believe a complete tear down is well overdue due to the years of dysfunction and losing seasons, it is not hard to assume this was not the plan. Wilson was a nine time Pro Bowler in Seattle, considered by Denver to have a lot left in the tank, which justified the value they gave up for him. If a complete rebuild was the plan for 2024 then the hire of Sean Payton was a complete mistake by new Owner Greg Penner as it did not need to take a first and second round pick and give up more draft capital to rebuild the team.

Returning the Broncos back to the playoffs with Sean Payton in control should have been a straight forward plan following the Walton/Penner Group becoming the new Broncos Owners last year. Penner inherited a Broncos fan base embarrassed, fed up and starved to get back to winning ways after coming off one of the most disappointing seasons in franchise history under Nathanial Hackett. Payton inherited a defense which was elite, a roster was considered by many as a playoff caliber roster, and a Quarterback in Russell, who just needed to fixed.

Payton knew taking the job he had to address and fix the quarterback position. The Broncos couldn’t just walk away from Wilson after giving Seattle a king’s ransom of players and picks along General Manager, George Paton securing Wilson with a massive contract extension through the 2025 season. The strategy needed to be find a coach to fix Wilson or faced massive salary cap penalties which we know to equal $85 million in dead cap money.

The solution to fix Wilson and the Broncos fell started with Owner Greg Penner. Criticism of Nathanial Hackett was Wilson was allowed to run freely within the organization and running a scheme not aligned to his skillset. Wilson needed a coach who could work to promote what he does well and return the nine-time pro-bowler back to his original self. To fix Wilson and the Broncos, Penner doubled down on the lack of Broncos draft capital and sent the first-round pick received from Miami for the Bradley Chubb trade and a second-round pick to New Orleans for the right to hire Sean Payton. Payton came to Denver with a reputation of a Super Bowl winning coach with Hall of Fame Quarterback Drew Brees, and before taking the job in Denver spelled out his plan to fix Russell Wilson.

In a January 2, 2023 article by John Sigler, Yahoo Sports Payton was quoted as saying the following “You correct flaws immediately, and then we don’t worry about how long the process is going to take,” Payton said, preaching patience. “In other words, I’d want to cut up today, I’d want a cutup of all of Russell’s pass plays of 30 or more yards from the field, and I’d want to see ‘Are there are some schemes that he felt very comfortable with?’”

In his first year under Payton, Wilson was more efficient, he did limit the number of mistakes as his touchdown to interception ratio was one of the best in the league before being benched the last two games of the season.

Payton went on to say, “Like I know they did a great job in Seattle of bringing him in off of a naked boot and then pulling up, and we all saw that throwback to (Tyler) Lockett across the field where the ball traveled 60 yards in the air.”

Finally, Payton went on to evaluate Wilson’s red zone performance  “And then I’d want another film of his red-zone touchdown passes inside the 20. And what I’m asking for from assistants, is I’m asking for some of his greatest hits. And I’m seeing if we have those song lyrics available, and if not, I’m putting them in.”

Ok, so Sean Payton knew going to Denver what Wilson does well and what he doesn’t so what happened? Wilson was known for throwing one of the best deep balls in the league, but yet Denver didn’t utilize their deep threat receiver they drafted in Mims, which later Payton acknowledged they did not use Mims as much as they should. The Broncos had a strong running game, but were not committed to it which would have to set up the boots like Seattle.

Under Payton, Wilson was reined in under all accounts from play on the field to off the field behavior. Payton tore down Russell Wilson but did little to build him back up. Rather than let Wilson do what he has done well for years, under Payton Wilson became a check down artist and game manager. As an outsider looking in it appeared Wilson was humbled, but still did what was asked, had decent numbers and even after all that Denver ended a 15-game losing streak to the Chiefs and beat the Bills on a Monday night in Buffalo putting Denver in a possible playoff position, the team approached him to restructure his deal removing some guarantee money. Wilson remained the Broncos quarterback but after a brutal home loss to New England, Payton decided to scrap his plan to fix Wilson and eventually made the decision to absorb an $85 million cap hit and move on.

Payton later explained the move as wanting to jump start the offense before Wilson’s went public with, he was asked to restructure his contract. The results for year one with Russell Wilson under Sean Payton were mixed. He was better but not perfect. Payton knew he needed to modify his offense to promote Wilson’s strengths, but decided rather than be patient, which he said would be the key to fixing the quarterback Payton followed what has been a consistent pattern in Denver, which is trying to microwave success and when it doesn’t happen by year two scrap the plan and start over.

Going into the offseason it was not clear if Denver would move on from Russell Wilson and absorb an $85millon dead cap hit, or if Wilson would be released. One thing has become clear, Sean Payton’s decided to follow the pattern of previous Broncos off seasons and scrap a plan because it do not produce immediate success. Payton choosing not work with Russell Wilson and the move has sent ripples throughout Broncos Country and the NFL. While many in Broncos Country view moving on from Wilson as a way to start over the timing of this decision could cripple the franchise and is currently set up to fail.

Sean Payton made a decision to move on from a franchise quarterback when he does not have the cap space or draft capital to replace him immediately. In turn hope has become a strategy for the Broncos entering into 2024. Denver is going to need to hope they have some young late round draft picks become quality starters, they are going to hope the right quarterback falls to them in the draft and they are going to hope moving on from Russell Wilson this year was the right one. However, as they say in business hope is not a strategy and hope will get you fired, so let’s hope this is not the case in Denver.