Everything is not going as planned for the Houston Texans to start the 2023 NFL season. As the Texans reach the midway point of the season with a 4-4 record and second in the AFC South, primarily due to the stellar play of rookie quarterback CJ Stroud, the team appears to have solved their issue at quarterback and struck gold with the rookie phenom from Ohio State, which they selected second in the 2023 NFL draft. While Stroud falling to the Texans appears to be everything a team picking second overall can ask for, Houston can only wonder what would have happened if their 2022 tanking plan worked, but the bigger question should NFL teams tank for the number one pick?

It was no secret during last season the Texans were very likely going to draft a quarterback in the 2023 draft. Through 14 games the team had only one win on the year, Davis Mills wasn’t going to be the solution as the team’s franchise quarterback and it appeared the team would be sitting at the top of the draft with their choice of anyone they wanted from last year’s QB class.

As the season wound down and NFL mock drafts fired up, many national draft analysts around the country linked current Panthers quarterback Bryce Young to Houston over Stroud.

Unfortunately, for Houston’s tanking supporters as the season entered into its final weeks, Head Coach Lovie Smith, who was already on the hot seat and rumored to be on his way out of Houston, was able to rally the Texans to two late-season victories, which was enough to push Houston past Chicago, thus dropping them to the number two overall pick, which at the time appeared to be a catastrophic consolation prize.

Houston’s luck of falling into a franchise quarterback serves as a reminder to teams around the NFL that there are no guarantees with any prospect and the price of developing a losing culture out ways the cost of trying to secure the number one pick.

This season team’s like the Bears, Patriots, Cardinals and Broncos all can be tempted by the possibility of tanking in hopes to draft Caleb Williams from USC, who many draft analysts consider the next can’t miss prospect with comparisons to Patrick Mahomes. The problem with tanking for the number one pick is the message it sends to the current players and fans of the organization, which is the team will accept a losing culture. Championship franchises do not accept losing in any manner and while it can be tempting NFL franchises looking to improve must block out the noise and continue to try to win games.

The Denver Broncos have been faced with the tanking debate this season as they struggle with the best path back to the playoffs. Russell Wilson has been better but after a 1-5 start many in Broncos Country calling for the team to tank for Caleb Williams, but instead they rallied to beat the Packers and then the following week beat the Chiefs ending a sixteen game losing streak. Rather than give up on the season and tank the Broncos have responded and are showing while they are a franchise who has been down they are still one who values winning.

Proponents of tanking could see winning a couple of games as losing out on a franchise saving quarterback, instead what is happening in Denver is the team is learning how to win again, just like what the Texans and Lions did last year.

If NFL teams want to rebuild then they should learn how to win first by building their roster and develop their culture. Once the culture is solid and the team have some pieces around a young quarterback if they want to target a “Mahomes” then teams should do what the Chiefs did to get him, which is accumulate enough draft assets to trade up and have the opportunity to select their next franchise quarterback, or do their homework and find a solution with a little bit of luck.

In conclusion, the Houston Texans’ unexpected turn of events in the 2023 NFL season serves as a cautionary tale for teams considering tanking for the number one draft pick. While the Texans seemed destined for the top pick, their late-season victories propelled them to the second overall pick and the opportunity to draft rookie sensation CJ Stroud. This stroke of luck underscores the unpredictable nature of prospects and the high cost of cultivating a losing culture.

The notion of tanking has been a tempting strategy for underperforming teams like the Bears, Patriots, Cardinals, and Broncos, who are eyeing the highly touted Caleb Williams as the next can’t-miss quarterback. However, the Denver Broncos’ recent resurgence demonstrates that winning is paramount to rebuilding. By focusing on building a strong roster and cultivating a winning mindset, teams can position themselves for future success, as evidenced by the Texans and Lions in previous years.

Instead of relying solely on tanking, championship franchises prioritize building a winning culture from the ground up. If teams aim to secure a franchise-saving quarterback like Patrick Mahomes, they should follow the Kansas City Chiefs’ example: amass draft assets to trade up and ensure the opportunity to select their desired signal-caller.

Ultimately, the Houston Texans’ unexpected journey underscores the importance of strategic decision-making over tanking. While the allure of the number one draft pick may be tempting, it is crucial for teams to focus on developing a winning foundation and selecting the right players to build a successful organization for years to come.